The Precautionary Principle: Successful Use By the UN

The most important document in the ongoing international action on climate change is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Introduced in 1992, the UNFCCC serves as the basis for many subsequent environmental treaties, including the Kyoto protocol. It is an excellent example of a successful implementation of the precautionary principle.

Article 3, section 3 of the convention states:

”The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures, taking into account that policies and measures to deal with climate change should be cost-effective. ... ” (UNFCCC, 1992)

When the UNFCCC was introduced nearly twenty years ago, the scientific evidence supporting human-induced climate change was much weaker than it is currently. How fortunate it is that the United Nations chose not to wait for more evidence before making decisions about climate change. It is now understood that global warming is occurring, and though the current situation appears bleak, it could have been far worse had the world waited until now to begin acting on climate change.

The UNFCCC also acknowledges a common objection to fighting climate change: the economic cost. Some parties feel that the price associated with efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are not worth the perceived benefits, especially as there is still a small chance that disastrous global warming may be averted. By limiting solutions to only those considered cost-effective, the UNFCCC refutes the financial argument by ensuring that any measures taken will be done so as cheaply as possible.

Although the global political will to act on climate change is still underwhelming, notable advances continue to be made. Due to the UNFCCC and the precautionary principle, the state of the world is far more positive than it might have been.

References

United Nations. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Rio de Janeiro: 1992.
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed 21 October 2009.

Reducing CO2 Emissions; Wind Power or Nuclear Power?

http://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/article/default.aspx?objid=63668

In the article “Nuclear power: low-carbon, secure and proven” from the Cambridge Network, the author believes that in an effort to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, we should turn to nuclear power rather than wind power. I believe that this is proper use of precautionary thinking.

The article states that using wind power as a precautionary measure is unreliable because wind power is erratic and unpredictable because it can change between days, hours, and minutes. As well, during high wind events, the turbines sometimes need to be closed to prevent damage ("Nuclear power: low-carbon," 2009).

The article continues to explain why wind power, in Denmark, for instance, is not an appropriate alternative when it comes to creating energy with low carbon dioxide emissions. The author explains that since wind is so unpredictable, it cannot be relied on to provide energy for a large amount of a country’s population ("Nuclear power: low-carbon," 2009).

Instead, the author suggests that an appropriate precautionary measure to the need of creating energy without emissions is nuclear power, using Sweden as an example. The author states that even though there is an issue of nuclear waste, current nuclear power plants generate low amounts of waste ("Nuclear power: low-carbon," 2009). This is important because nuclear power gives off no emissions and is more reliable than wind power.

In comparing the two options, the author also makes a valid point when saying that in the lifetime of one nuclear reactor, a wind turbine might need to be replaced three times and this maintenance is not only expensive, but dangerous when it comes to offshore turbines. As well, David McKay, the UK government’s chief climate change and energy advisor is quoted saying the wind power only makes a small contribution to a country’s energy production ("Nuclear power: low-carbon," 2009).

Overall, the author of the article provides with suitable precautionary thinking for a very important issue.

Reference

(2009, October 08). Nuclear power: low-carbon, secure and proven. Retrieved from http://www.cambridgenetwork.co.uk/news/article/default.aspx?objid=63668

Melting Composts Heaps And The Permafrost Precautionary Principle

In a recent blog post by Christian Hunt, on climatesafety.org, the effects of the melting of permafrost were discussed and the precautionary principle was suggested as being a critical part of the solution.
The permafrost located in the Arctic is under increasing threat of melting due to global warming. Huge amounts of dead organisms and waste such as dead vegetation are contained in the permafrost. The permafrost therefore plays the role of a huge composting bin, a compost which covers almost one fifth of the earth’s surface. Since the permafrost is threatened by global warming, there is a chance huge amounts of carbon dioxide and methane gas could be released into the atmosphere. The blog suggests that information on large scale emissions, is hard to obtain but that unless steps are taken to ebb the warming of permafrost, there will be large amounts of harmful emissions created from the melting of permafrost.
In his blog Hunt uses facts on a small scale to provide reasons for considering permafrost as a potential component for global warming. Hunt states that while it is unknown how much carbon dioxide and methane gas will be released or how fast the emissions will increase, the affect of permafrost melting will be added to the IPCC’s scenarios and has, undoubtedly, a huge potential for harm. Hunt says that using the precautionary principle means we cannot ignore the permafrost any longer since ignorance could have catastrophic results.
Hunt’s use of the precautionary principle seems to me to be extremely valid. While there is no large scale testing done on the permafrost, the results from point by point measurements seem to suggest an overall increase in the amount of permafrost melting. If this is the case then certainly the precautionary principle demands that we take action to try and prevent anymore melting. While we don’t have huge amounts of information, the information provided “suggests a bit of a doomsday scenario” which demands, using the precautionary principle, that we act immediately.

References

Hunt, C. (October, 11th, 2009) "Melting compost heaps and the permafrost precautionary principle." climatesafety.org. Retrieved from http://climatesafety.org/melting-compost-heaps-and-the-permafrost-precautionary-principle/ (19 October 2009).

Are we making a less meat-friendly environment?

In our society today, the repercussions of climate change are becoming more and more apparent, however, until its too late, we will never really know just how many aspects of our lives will be affected. Studies are helping scientists get a better picture of some of the effects we could be facing if this global threat is not stopped.

A recent study conducted by Neville Gregory, an animal physiologist of London’s Royal Veterinary College, proved that climate change is something that affects us in so many ways that we wouldn’t even think of.

In Gregory’s article, published in science direct, Gregory explains how climate change could affect our diet, specifically the meat we eat. Gregory explains that as the climate changes such that animals are being exposed to greater amounts of heat, the quality of the meat being produced by these animals will lessen.

This decline in quality is due to implications brought on by increased temperatures such as an increase in mortality rate and other organ and tissue related complications due to heat stress. These complications carry on after slaughter, leading to compromise of the meat produced by these animals, not only in its quality, but in its risk of contamination by E. coli and salmonella.

While this isn’t the most hard-hitting affect climate change would have on our world, small things like this tend to build up. There are greater and more pressing risks associated with climate change, but this shows how it could change our way of life in more ways than we would think.

References
Gregory, N. G. How climatic changes could affect meat quality. Food Research International (2009), Food Res. Int. doi:10.1016/j.foodres.2009.05.018 (2009)

Armstrong, Anna. (2009) Meat-eater’s Malady. Nature Reports. www.nature.com 12 october 2009. http://www.nature.com/climate/2009/0910/full/climate.2009.101.html

Climate change affecting the Arabain Sea's natural cycles

There has been a disturbance in the Arabian Sea’s surface temperatures natural decadal cycle since 1995 and climate change may be to blame. A paper titled “Response of the Arabian Sea to global warming and associated regional climate shift” published in the journal ScienceDirect explores the effects of climate change on sea surface temperatures (SST), as well as other climate shifts.

The SST has been rising since 1904 to 1994 (approximately 0.5 °C) with a natural decadal cycle, but since 1995, it has increased steadily with no cycle. The natural decadal cycle is related to the solar irradiance cycle but since 2000 solar activity has declined yet SST continued to rise. This led the authors to suspect that the rise in SST is due to global warming. When examining the correlation between rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations and SST, there was an evident relationship between 1960 and 2006.

Other changes around the Arabian Sea are believed to be a result of rising temperatures. The intensity and number of cyclones has risen in the past twelve years (from 1995 to 2007). Also, air temperatures over India, during February, have rapidly increased an additional 1.5 °C since 1995. This is resulting in a decrease in wheat yield, since it is a winter crop. There has been a 4.5% decline in kernel weight for every 1 °C increase in temperature.

An obvious question remains; why is the Arabian Sea just showing the effects of climate change since 1995? This is due to the fact that a strong wind-driven upwelling brings cooler water to the surface, for example, the temperatures of the upwelling water near Somalia ranges from 17 to 22 °C. This upwelling has maintained the natural decade cycle, but since 1995 and 2006, carbon dioxide drive radiative forcing has increased 20% causing temperature’s to rise. Upwelling-driven cooling can no longer compensate this increase in temperature. This resulted in a steady increase in SST.

Rising temperatures due to climate change evidently caused the disruption of the natural decadal cycle in the Arabian Sea. The reason for the cycle not being affected until 1995 is due to the wind-driven upwelling masking the effects. The affecting SST rising temperatures have caused other changes as well, such as an increase in cyclone intensity and occurrences along with affecting crop yield. Many of the effects of rising SST are new and other further effects are unknown. Further study should be done on the food security within the region, since temperatures are expected to rise.

References:

Kumar, Prasanna, Raj Roshin, Jayu Narvekar, Dinesh Kumar, and E. Vivekanandan. "ScienceDirect - Marine Environmental Research : Response of the Arabian Sea to global warming and associated regional climate shift." ScienceDirect - Home. 5 Dec. 2009. Web. 14 Oct. 2009. .

Increase in Hurricane Activity Linked to Rising Ocean Temperatures

It has been acknowledged that Atlantic hurricane activity has increased a significant amount since 1995, but the question of course is: why? Thanks to Mark Saunders and Adam Lea of the Department of Space and Climate physics at the University College London, the answer is closer than before.

It is absolutely certain that Atlantic hurricane activity has increased since the 1980s. Based on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index (ACE), the proportion of years with activity above the 1950-2000 mean has increased from 16% for the period of 1970-1994 to 82% for the period 1995-2005 (Saunders et al, 2008). This sudden rise in hurricane activity has two possible factors: sea surface temperature and an atmospheric wind field.

The purpose of Saunders and Lea’s study was to determine the contribution of sea surface temperatures alone. They collected several data: wind speed data, sea surface temperature (SST) data, monthly wind records, hurricane and tropical cyclone records, hurricane frequency models, and statistical models of sea warming. Through vigorous analysis, calculations, and interpretation, they removed the influence of atmospheric wind field and determined the following:

“Our results indicate that the sensitivity of tropical Atlantic hurricane activity to August–September sea surface temperature over the period we consider is such that a 0.5 °C increase in sea surface temperature is associated with a 40% increase in hurricane frequency and activity. The results also indicate that local sea surface warming was responsible for 40% of the increase in hurricane activity relative to the 1950–2000 average between 1996 and 2005.” (Saunders et al, 2008)

According to Saunders and Lea’s results, indeed warming sea surface temperatures are a significant contributing factor in increased hurricane activity; the results go further to prove that, in fact, even a 0.5°C increase in sea surface temperature can result in an alarming increase of 40% in hurricane activity.

However, the Atlantic hurricane activity has been interpreted as the result of two possible factors, one being rising sea surface temperatures linked to global warming trends, and the other, the return to the positive phase conditions of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (a naturally occurring oscillation of the North Atlantic Ocean). If indeed it is caused by only a natural occurrence, it is expected that hurricane activity levels will drop back down to normal within approximately 20 years. However, if linked to rising ocean temperatures caused by global warming, hurricane activity is expected to continue increasing through the twenty-first century (Saunders et al, 2008). Saunders addressing this, stating the following:

“Our analysis does not identify whether warming induced by greenhouse gases contributed to the increase in hurricane activity, but the ability of climate models to reproduce the observed relationship between hurricanes and sea surface temperature will serve as a useful means of assessing whether they are likely to provide reliable projections of future changes in Atlantic hurricane activity.” (Saunders et al, 2008)

Clearly, it is important to recognize that Atlantic hurricane activity levels are increasing significantly, and whether or not one wishes to address the issues of global warming, rising ocean temperatures should be a cause for alarm.

References

Saunders, M, et al. “Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity.” Nature. January 2008, 451, 557-560. doi:10.1038/nature06422.

Climate Change Destroying Eastern Eurasian Forests And Ecosystems

Changes in the climate could cause massive changes in the population and dynamic of eastern eurasian forests. The results climate change simulation were published in the August edition of the journal Climate Change and the results predict a grim future for Eurasian forests.

The study was performed by Ningning Zhang, H.H. Shugart and Xiaodong Yan to determine the effects of climate change on a forest system covering 6 million km squared bordering on the south side of Russia and the north end of China and Mongolia. Since many of the trees in the forest system exist only within a very sensitive climate range a change of one degree can be fatal and catastrophic, as the study shows.

The study used something called the "FAREAST Model" to accurately simulate the effect of two climate change scenarios on the vast tree system, using values from the IPCC. The model simulated the dynamic of the forest and also incorporated, using trends based on IPCC information, variations such as temperature change and its side effects on soil composition and natural fertilizers. Since the trees in the forest system seem to be highly sensitive towards climate change both a "cold" and "hot" model of climate change were used.

The results of the study showed that the forest system is in extreme danger. The study says that many of the trees, living within such tentative temperature limits, would perish almost instantly after a few degrees change in temperature. This carries more weight than just the obvious extinction of a species of tree. The study says that the conifers in the forest system such as Larix and Picea would have a drastic decrease in population due to the small range of temperature change they are able to live in. The loss of one type of tree in a forest also implies complications such as a loss of biodiversity, a loss of a valuable ecosystem and it also changes the forest dynamic. While the study does suggest that some trees may adapt to the change in temperature, such as the broad leaved deciduous trees: Fraxinus, Quercus and Tili, the distribution of the trees would have to change wildly, whether moving to a warmer or cooler part of the system or growing only in very sparse clusters. The change in the forest system, while not only affecting the population of trees and the amount of biodiversity also destroys many valuable habitats for many animals. The study predicts almost a complete destruction of an ecosystem.

Climate change, even a change of only one degree has a huge effect on the earth. The study, while not only showing an imminent loss of Eurasian forests, also perhaps paints a picture for a worldwide future of loss and destruction.

References

Zhang, N. et al. "Simulating the effects of climate changes on Eastern Eurasia forests". Climate Change. August 2009, vol. 95, pp. 341-361, doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9568-4.