The study was performed by Ningning Zhang, H.H. Shugart and Xiaodong Yan to determine the effects of climate change on a forest system covering 6 million km squared bordering on the south side of Russia and the north end of China and Mongolia. Since many of the trees in the forest system exist only within a very sensitive climate range a change of one degree can be fatal and catastrophic, as the study shows.
The study used something called the "FAREAST Model" to accurately simulate the effect of two climate change scenarios on the vast tree system, using values from the IPCC. The model simulated the dynamic of the forest and also incorporated, using trends based on IPCC information, variations such as temperature change and its side effects on soil composition and natural fertilizers. Since the trees in the forest system seem to be highly sensitive towards climate change both a "cold" and "hot" model of climate change were used.
The results of the study showed that the forest system is in extreme danger. The study says that many of the trees, living within such tentative temperature limits, would perish almost instantly after a few degrees change in temperature. This carries more weight than just the obvious extinction of a species of tree. The study says that the conifers in the forest system such as Larix and Picea would have a drastic decrease in population due to the small range of temperature change they are able to live in. The loss of one type of tree in a forest also implies complications such as a loss of biodiversity, a loss of a valuable ecosystem and it also changes the forest dynamic. While the study does suggest that some trees may adapt to the change in temperature, such as the broad leaved deciduous trees: Fraxinus, Quercus and Tili, the distribution of the trees would have to change wildly, whether moving to a warmer or cooler part of the system or growing only in very sparse clusters. The change in the forest system, while not only affecting the population of trees and the amount of biodiversity also destroys many valuable habitats for many animals. The study predicts almost a complete destruction of an ecosystem.
Climate change, even a change of only one degree has a huge effect on the earth. The study, while not only showing an imminent loss of Eurasian forests, also perhaps paints a picture for a worldwide future of loss and destruction.
References
Zhang, N. et al. "Simulating the effects of climate changes on Eastern Eurasia forests". Climate Change. August 2009, vol. 95, pp. 341-361, doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9568-4.
It is incredible that things like forests, which appear so stable and unchanging, are actually very fragile systems, and can become destabilized by minute changes. Studies and models like the one described above should serve as wake-up calls: forests, for all their apparent permanence, real limits, and if we don't start to reign in on climate change, we may very well lose them.
ReplyDeleteThe Eurasian forests cover a VERY large land mass, meaning a very large ecosystem. This ecosystem happens to be very sensitive like you have mentioned, so damage to it would not only play a role in the extinction of tress, but the other species that need them for food and habitat. This is a huge issue because we're talking about an entire ecosystem at risk.
ReplyDeleteBy doing the study with both the "hot" and "cold" models of climate change, Zhang et al immediately avoid the criticism from climate change skeptics who use possible cooling as an argument against global warming. The study shows that climate change is a cause for concern: whether it results in global warming or cooling, the heavy consequence is that there will undoubtedly be a massive loss of species and ecosystems.
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